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July 09, 2007


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It is nonsense, dont worry. All those trend-following, risk-seeking, quick-triggered, hot-money operators had been out there for ages. Sucks, indeed!


SWC is up 7.2% today! But that is hardly the whole story! Read my blog to see why this is a super bull.


I gotta laugh... you're right. I wonder if he really invests the way he talks, or just does it for the publicity.

But, I'm no better. I've been predicting a crash for over a year, since the yield curve inverted, and I'm still waiting. It's tough.


Take a read at: How to take advantage of an impending crash- Part 2: understanding a subtlety (@

If someone asks us, “Is the market going to go up or is it going to come down?” a simple and direct answer of “Up” or “Down” will be too simplistic to reveal a subtlety...

This implies two things:

1. In today’s market, the probability of the market going up is higher than the probability of it coming down. Hence, it is rightly called a bull market.
2. But should it come down (which is unlikely), it can collapse at extremely great speed and magnitude.

Hence, the stronger and longer this uptrend continues, the greater in magnitude and speed (as in volatility, not timing) the Great Crash III will be. Hence, the coming Great Crash III is a Black Swan event—an improbable but colossal impact event.

Bill Fleckenstein could be right in the end!

Scott Brooks

Some people are always bearish.....some always bullish. Neither are correct.....

What a difference 6 months make in this post!


Fleckenstein turned out to be dead on right after all.


This is an email to Bill Fleckenstein, I am a realtor in Orange County California and I agree that the sub-prime market in some area's have added to the mortgage mess. The problem I have about your reporting is that you make blanket statements about the real estate market dooms day and we are doing okay here. Maybe instead of reporting just about the mortgage mess all together, what about writing about area sensitivity and how maybe gas prices have affect the market place and overall economy. I think that this gas situation has been playing a bigger roll than what is being talked on the street about the housing market.

One opinion,



The only problem with Bill is that he was just a little bit ahead of his time.Just about ninety percent of his predictions have come true.As for Alan greenspan,he will go down as the worst fed chairman of all time.Joining the worst president of all time.Ending with the worst economy of all time.USA time anyway.

D Davis

Time is being very kind to Mr. Fleckenstein. Something your post was not. Turns out he was right and all the bull were wrong.



Subject: S7-16-97

Date: 8/13/98 6:49 PM

You Have Got To Be Kidding!!!!

I have contacted the SEC numerous times and continue as a matter of courtesy
To e:mail the agency regarding the recent contacts that I have made. Mr. Arthur
Levitt Chairman of the SEC has at various times chastised the CPAs for not
doing enough to uncover fraud. That is some joke when you consider the role
that the SEC has played in covering-up a major stock market manipulation case.
Remember, it was the SEC who supported the brokerage industry by allowing them
to monitor and dispose of consumer complaints. The SEC went so far under Shad
as to state, in their friend of the stockbrokerage industry brief in the
McMahon vs. Shearson case that went before the US Supreme Court in 1987, that
the SEC monitors arbitration cases. In my case the SEC covered-up a stock
market manipulation case. It was Ira Sorkin, former Northeast SEC
administrator, who confessed to the press in 1986 that self-regulation never
worked. It was he who refused to investigate my case because he considered the
fact that Merrill Lynch had performed their own extensive internal
investigation. (I have an SEC internal memorandum that supports the statement
Sorkin made to Shad). They certainly did. They got rid of their workpapers
that supported earnings projections that were 100% off the mark and not
corrected until the end of the 11th month of the corporate calendar year.

I have made a copy of the e:mail that I have forwarded to various interested
news groups and organizations.

Gentlemen where have you been hiding?????

I worked to shed light on how Merrill Lynch's controlled the market valuation
in Ranger Oil in 1980 and 1981. I brought a lawsuit before the NASD and
became a victim again!!! I am a CPA and former auditor with Price Waterhouse
& Co. What I witnessed was a trashing of the Justice system that can only
happen in a country where the almighty dollar is worshipped more than God.

I won my lawsuit against Merrill Lynch in 1988. I still have the transcripts
of my case for your consideration. You may find it interesting to note that
the NASD destroyed the transcripts (some 2000 pages) of the case just as
Merrill Lynch did with its workpapers on Ranger Oil.

It is not surprising that Wall St continues its ill begotten ways when it has
the SEC and the NASD to cover-up its fraudulent and manipulative ways. I have
made a copy of the e:mail that I previously aired some months ago which will
provide you with some idea of the extent of organized crime's involvement in
the marketplace. I am not talking about the Mafia --- I am talking about our
respected members of our society.

My name is William V. Marino, CPA, MBA. I am a so-called activist who had
been working diligently to shed light on the manipulation of the stock market
by the major brokerage firms all with the blessing of the SEC and the NASD.

I was contacted by the SEC in 1988 for input when Congress attempted to
investigate the securities arbitration process. I won a case against Merrill
Lynch, which ended in 1988 and mailed to the SEC my findings.

The findings deal with a cover-up of a major stock market manipulation
case. I won my case against Merrill Lynch in 1988 and what I uncovered should
have been investigated by the so-called watchdog of the industry. Needless to
say, the regulators engaged in a cover-up and the media did not get involved.
The lesson I learned is crime pays. If you are interested read my letter that
was sent to the SEC.

To the SEC
Dear Mr. Stark:

If you had the opportunity to explore my case against Merrill Lynch and my
experience with the regulatory agencies, the conclusion that I have arrived at
is the investing (trusting) public would be better served if there were no
SEC. At least they would know that its buyer beware and that reliance on trust
(Merrill Lynch's slogan) is just a technique to disarm the public from doing
in depth investigations.

Don Regan, former chairman of the board of Merrill Lynch, put it very
succinctly when he stated that the SEC is not a watchdog but the lapdog of the
brokerage industry. More correctly stated, the SEC is a watchdog -- the
securities industry watchdog. In my case against Merrill Lynch, the SEC
actively engaged in a cover-up. Ira Sorkin, a former N.E. regional
administrator of the SEC, who I was in contact with in my investigation of
Merrill Lynch, confessed to the press in 1986 that self-regulation never
worked. What a bum!!!!!! Al Capone certainly has a lot of company.

I have in my possession an internal memo from Ira Sorkin to chairman Shad
which stated in brackets that the SEC decided not to investigate Merrill
Lynch's manipulation of the market in Ranger Oil because it consider "the fact
that Merrill Lynch had performed its own extensive internal investigation."
Merrill Lynch certainly did, they destroyed the workpapers that contained
their research on Ranger Oil. Ltd.

I am now spreading the word by the internet worldwide. I appeared on CNN
moneyline in 1990. I was written-up in Ralph Nader's corporate crime
newsletter. I spoke on a Texas radio station and was written up in L.I.'s

Merrill Lynch certainly learned their lesson from the Scientific Controls
case that the SEC brought in the 1970s. The Ranger Oil case clearly
demonstrates that to say the SEC is a lapdog of the industry is a substantial

Al Capone with his lack of morality could have been something if he went
to College. He could have been the chairman of the board of Merrill Lynch or
at least the chairman of the SEC. Here is a clear case that education pays.

God bless the USA because it will certainly need in coming years. If you
stopped Merrill Lynch in its tracks years ago you would not have what you got
today - Orange County fiasco; Prudential Securities Limited partnership
scandals; EF Hutton check kiting scheme just to name a few blemishes that were
revealed in the press that the SEC failed to cover-up.

When the next stock market crash occurs and it will very soon; then maybe
the public will get a SEC that it deserves. My uncle, Lt Col. Chuck Molfetto,
recently deceased was a career C.I.A. agent and served in Southeast Asia for
more than 25 years. He was a counterinsurgency specialists and a member of the
OSS during WWII. He was appointed military governor of a section of Northern
Italy. He was a loyal servant to his country as I am and as so many members of
my family. Tom Marino, cousin, captain - Special Forces. Recipient of the
soldier's medal. Sgt Stanislaus Sladowski, bronze star medal winner. Vincent
Marino, father, fought in the battle of the bulge and served with the 3rd
armored division. All, except for my uncle, invested their hard earned
savings in Ranger Oil and were part of a nationwide herd that stampeded into
Ranger Oil when the stock was rated high risk on Dec 2, 1980. A rating that
was not released in the USA but was only for distribution in Canada. No wonder
the Canadians did not suck up Ranger Oil stock in December 1980. In 1988, I
received a favorable verdict from the NASD in the case I brought against
Merrill Lynch. Mr. Franko an attorney for Pershing & Co was no stranger to Mr.
Crowe, the in-house counsel for Merrill Lynch, who also serves as an
arbitrator for the NASD. What I had uncovered in my case was the fact that
Merrill Lynch's key clients and brokers trading through Merrill Lynch
accounted for 1.1+million shares being sold. Of that amount, 400,000+shares
were "shorts." The American Stock Exchange only reported 1+million shares of
RGO purchased by ML customers and 400,000+ shares sold. On the
buy side 5000+ customers actually purchased 2.5+million shares and only 100+
key clients and brokers trading through ML accounted for 1.1+million sold.
This is manipulation at its best. Merrill Lynch's select group of NASD
arbitrators decided not to enter this information because it came too late in
the hearing to be introduced. Merrill Lynch was shocked when they discovered
that I have in my possession the American Stock Exchange computer run of
Merrill Lynch customer trades in Ranger Oil and Merrill Lynch stock record of
customer positions in Ranger Oil.

I brought this scandal to your attention and you the SEC covered this up.
If Al Capone belongs in the Hall of Shame then where does Merrill Lynch,
Prudential Securities, the SEC, the American Stock Exchange and more than 3/4
of the House of Congress belong.

I am e mailing you with the sole knowledge that nothing will change until
the next stock market crash which will be largely attributed to the SEC and
their inability to cover-up the next stock market scandal. You the SEC have
allowed Merrill Lynch to destroy their workpapers on Ranger Oil and to get away
with it. You the SEC have allowed Merrill Lynch to trade off the exchange a
actively traded stock and by doing so have participated in the ultimate crime
- the manipulation of the stock market which affected the good people of the
country - pension accounts, gifts to minor accounts etc.

I worked for Price Waterhouse and if we lost our workpapers for an audit
engagement that failed, we would lose our CPA licenses and go to jail. As a
former client of mine who was a former FBI agent and now a VP at First Boston so
aptly put it - "money talks and bullshit walks." Or appropriately put - those
with the gold make the rules.


If you are interested in understanding why the NASD are co-conspirators -
read on. Merrill Lynch's in-house counsel who tried the case before Merrill
Lynch's select group of arbitrators should have been thrown in jail. There was
one situation in the arbitration session that revealed the duplicity of the
NASD. It occurred when my attorney questioned the fundamental analyst
concerning the missing workpapers. Mr. Crowe, ML's attorney, looked at Mr.
Franko, attorney for Pershing & Co., when the question of the "missing workpapers" was raised and Mr. Franko rolled his eyes upwards towards the ceiling. There is no doubt in my mind that MR Crowe was in communication with Mr. Franko all during the time my case was going on. Having Mr. Franko on the panel was like having another Merrill Lynch attorney. In the transcript, we have Mr. Franko questioning me on statements I never made. My attorney objected only to have Mr. Franko screams out - I'm an arbitrator. We ask to have Mr. Franko examine the record for statements I supposedly made and he said never mind.
Sometime after the hearing was over I discovered that Mr. Crowe also served
as an arbitrator for the NASD and even went so far as to prepare a training
film as to how arbitration was to be conducted.
In my case, ML's select group of arbitrators refused to admit into
evidence huge trades off the exchange stating that the information came to
late in the hearing to be introduced. ML was extremely upset when they found
that I had in my possession their computer run of customer trades and their
stock record of customer position in Ranger Oil.
What I learned is how far organized crime has come. Gifts to minor,
pension accounts invested their savings in Ranger Oil at a time when it was
rated high risk.
A Mrs. McGuiness, who was a widow for 30 years and worked for ML in their wire
room, invested her savings in Ranger Oil. Her total life's savings was 60,000.
She was living on social security, and an $80 a month pension from Merrill
Lynch. The broker who told her to sell out of blue chips and get into Ranger
Oil and Damson Oil had a position in Ranger Oil that approximated $800,000.
In fact, the Merrill Lynch Garden City office that I used to make my
investment in Ranger Oil accounted for 10% of the total shares traded
nationwide. Some 35 brokers had invested their own money in Ranger Oil.
Why didn't the SEC investigate my case????? You had a situation of huge
trades off the exchange that demonstrates how organized crime operates.
Needless to say, they have nothing to fear when the NASD and the SEC are their
Can you imagine a situation where some 5000+ ML customers across the nation
jump into Ranger Oil at a time when the stock was rated "high risk," and when
the technical analyst stated that there was a material negative unknown that
could not be quantified.
ML's select group of arbitrators held for the Marino family with a 3 out
of 5 votes. Needless to say, Merrill Lynch never had to worry about Franko. He
was with Merrill Lynch right from the start. The bum should serve a life
sentence. What was shocking was the panel held Merrill Lynch responsible and
not the broker. The broker perjured himself during the hearing and in his
written statement to the NASD. He stated that I received a written research
report on 12/2/80 and 12/9/80, which indicated that investors should not buy
but Hold and indicated that the stock was high risk. On cross examination of
ML's former fundamental analyst, the truth came out. The research reports
prepared in December 1980 was not for distribution in the USA. After the
analyst's statement, the broker on cross-examination admitted that he was
mistaken. In the broker's written reply to my complaint as to why I held onto
the stock in 1981, he stated that he contacted me in the early part of 1981
and advised me to get out of Ranger Oil. We confronted him with the first
research report I received in March of 1981 which was very positive -showed a
70% projected increase in earnings and an April Value Line report, which showed
an 80% projected increase in earnings. The broker was confronted with this
information and he confessed that those reports were positive and would tend
to make me hold onto the stock. In fact, Merrill Lynch had a buy on the stock.

We requested from the arbitrators to know what Merrill Lynch's did in their
firm trading account in Ranger Oil and were never given that information.

My case reveals the height that organized crime now operates at.

The threat to our democracy was never communism but corruption from within.

William V. Marino, CPA, MBA
118 Stella Ct.
Lynbrook, NY 11563

capalist pig

Here it is September 15, 2008 and the market is in free fall. Those who did not sell are hanging on by their teeth. Maybe getting out of stocks was not such a bad idea! Who scuks?


Is anybody out there still second-guessing Bill Fleckenstein? I've been following his column on MSN for two years now. I thought he was somewhat Chicken Little-ish early on.

He said subprime would collapse. Then broader credit markets would collapse. Then the stock market would collapse. And a nasty recession would follow.

Well, three down, one to go. You can sit here and deny the facts all you want, but I think the man was on to something. He has earned my respect for the foreseeable future. No analyst is ever right all the time, but Bill got this one right. Don't hate him because of it.


Thank goodness For Bill F. He has saved me somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000 so far follow his advise. I got our family OUT of the stock market and into cash almost a year ago. So much for sucking


It turns out old bill was right. All you mortagage brokers were part of the problem it turns out. Hope you saved all that money and did not snort it up your noses. Fleck predicted this over two years ago. Dumb motherfuckers.


Not only has Bill Fleckenstein been right about our current crisis but Peter Schiff has even been more accurate concerning the Wall Street and mortgage fiasco. Cheerleaders such as Larry Kudlow of MSNBC are the part of the propaganda machine of Wall Street and the money elite. Their sole purpose is to take from the poor and middle class and give to the rich (reverse Robin Hood). The whole mutual fund business is a giant ponzi scheme.


Hey Big Mike let me know when you start buying gold.
I would like to know when it's time to sell mine.


A fool and his\her money shall soon depart. You owners of stocks are not very smart. The book value per share of the average stock on the NYSE is way below the price you are paying. Advice: Calculate the book value per share of the stock you want to buy and decide for yourself if paying 100% premium on the stock is worth it. It is your money you are losing. I predict the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall to 5,000 before it hits 15,000. Enjoy the ride to prosperity. Welcome to ObamaNation.


This is classic. You arrogant dudes have to live with the unbelievably bone-headed comments you made about Fleckenstein for the rest of your lives on the web for all to see. God bless you idiots. God bless you.

Ed Sanville

To the original poster: And you call yourself a contrarian.

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About Big Mike

  • Big Mike has a BS in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an MBA and JD from Arizona State University. He once worked as a stockbroker for six weeks.

    His politics blog is Half Sigma.

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