I've long followed Bill Fleckenstein, but I've begun to suspect that his advice is bad. After all, he always screams "sell sell sell" yet somehow the Dow is pretty close to an all time high.
CXO Advisory Group has the bad news. Bill's recommendations have been right only 24% of the time. In fact, if you always did the opposite of what Bill says, you'd do pretty well. Few stock market gurus reach a 76% accuracy rate!
Bill writes in his most recent column:
I don't know when the party in the stock market is going to end. But given all the leverage, and given all the trend-following, risk-seeking, quick-triggered, hot-money operators out there, I don't see any way that we can avoid a crash or crashlike experience. I cannot emphasize strongly enough that the leveraging up of America is over. But the de-leveraging and the problems associated with that have only just begun.
It sounds pretty scary, but given Fleckenstein's lousy track record, I have my doubts.